Arapaja to APC: Why Oyo must beware when yesterday returns wearing tomorrow's garment
There is an old Yoruba saying that "the child who does not know where the rain began to beat him will never know where it stopped."
History, like an old griot, never forgets. It keeps meticulous records of every triumph, every misstep and every lesson that a people either embrace or ignore.
Recent developments in Oyo state as it gradually moves closer towards 2027 general elections, have once again stirred memories many believed had been buried beneath the sands of time.
After all, politics has no permanent cemetery. Old alliances are often resurrected, former political enemies or rivals as the case may be, become today's dinner companions, and yesterday's political foot soldiers sometimes return wearing the garments of generals.
The reported political realignment involving Ambassador Taofeek Arapaja and the Oyo state APC governorship candidate for the 2027 polls, Senator Sharafadeen Alli, has therefore become far more than an ordinary political meeting that should concern every resident.
This is why an old saying by an elderly friend immediately comes to mind that "When old political enemies shake hands in reunion ahead of a future stake, the people mustn't go to sleep with their two eyes closed because the center of such talks are personal interests not the general well-being of the public.
To many seasoned followers of political events in the state, it is the sound of an old drumbeat from Molete, a rhythm that once dictated the political heartbeat of Oyo State.
For those too young to remember, Molete was not merely a neighbourhood in Ibadanland. It was a political shrine where ambitions were either blessed or buried.
It was a place where the fate of aspiring governors, senators, state lawmakers, commissioners and local government chairmen was often believed to be decided long before even the ballot papers were printed.
At the centre of that formidable political universe was the late Alhaji Lamidi Ariyibi Adedibu, the man many described as the "strongman or political warlord of Molete," whose influence stretched across generations of politicians.
To his admirers, Adedibu was the voice of the common people with no connection to the seat of power, a political genius who understood the language of the streets better than any textbook scholar.
He could mobilise market women before sunrise, summon transport unions before noon and fill public squares before sunset. His politics was grassroots in the truest sense of the word.
Yet, as an African proverb clearly states, "the same knife that slices yam can also draw blood." Every coin always has two sides.
While Adedibu democratized political participation and gave ordinary people a sense of belonging in governance, his era also popularised a brand of politics where informal authority sometimes overshadowed constitutional institutions. Loyalty frequently became a stronger currency than competence.
This is why before anyone cheers the awakening of that era due to personal political ambition or disagreement, such person must be reminded of the cost to the people.
Political influence was occasionally measured not by the strength or supremacy of ideas but by proximity to the throne at Molete.
Perhaps no episode better illustrates this than the prolonged political confrontation between former Governor Rashidi Ladoja, now the Olubadan of Ibadanland, and his political benefactor.
What began as a disagreement between two political heavyweights gradually snowballed into a constitutional crisis that shook the very foundation of governance in Oyo State.
Government House became a battlefield, governance slowed to a crawl, and development paid the ultimate price.
As the elders would say, "when two rams lock horns on a narrow bridge, it is the bridge that suffers."
That painful chapter became a lasting reminder that when politics sits in the driver's seat and governance is pushed to the back seat, it is the ordinary citizen who bears the burden.
The passing of Chief Lamidi Adedibu in 2008 marked more than the end of a political dynasty.
It symbolized the gradual dismantling of an era where one political centre cast a long shadow over the affairs of the state. The political landscape eventually began to slowly transform.
Power became more dispersed, democratic institutions found stronger footing, and governance increasingly became the yardstick by which leaders were judged or held to account.
Successive administrations, despite their imperfections, shifted public discourse toward roads, schools, healthcare, agriculture, security and economic reforms.
Governorship debate found it's way into the state's democratic process among contending candidates before the same electorate.
Political godfatherism no longer appeared to occupy the commanding heights it once enjoyed. Oyo gradually exchanged the politics of one towering oak for a forest of competing ideas and interests.
This is precisely why the renewed political convergence of Ambassador Arapaja and Senator Sharafadeen Alli has generated widespread conversation and still does because these are not political newcomers searching for relevance.
They are two seasoned actors whose political upbringing bears the unmistakable fingerprints of the Molete school.
Their reunion has however, naturally raised questions, not because political reconciliation is wrong, but because history often travels in circles before people recognise its footprints.
It must bed recalled however, that this is not the first time Arapaja has pitched his political tent outside the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
During the twilight of the administration of the late Governor Abiola Ajimobi, when the All Progressives Congress (APC) appeared like a mighty iroko tree under whose shade many sought refuge, Arapaja joined the wave of prominent politicians who abandoned the PDP in search of greener political pastures.
At the time, the ruling APC looked like a moving train, and many believed that anyone who failed to board it would be left behind at the station. After all, when the market is bustling, every trader hopes to sell.
Yet, another African proverb reminds us that "The chick that abandons its mother's wings because the sun is shining may become the first victim when the hawk appears."
The political reality that unfolded afterwards proved less rewarding than many had anticipated. Internal rivalries within the APC, competing ambitions and the fierce struggle for relevance gradually exposed the limits of political migration. Whether those factors that forced his return to the PDP still exist today in Oyo APC or not is a topic for another day.
The promised land however, did not yield the expected harvest. Before long, Arapaja found himself seeking another platform, eventually contesting under the African Democratic Congress (ADC), a journey that ultimately failed to produce electoral success.
Ironically, while many defectors were searching for political fortune elsewhere, the PDP they had left behind was quietly rebuilding its house.
Governor Seyi Makinde's emergence in 2019 transformed the party from what many had dismissed as a sinking canoe into a vessel once again capable of navigating Oyo's political waters. Courtesy of the coalition force.
It was against this backdrop that Arapaja retraced his steps to the PDP in 2020. As the elders say, "The traveller who discovers that the road ahead is blocked does not consider it a disgrace to return to the junction."
His return was not merely symbolic; it marked the beginning of his political resurgence or what many now termed the Makinde effect in his political reawakening, culminating in his rise to national prominence as the PDP's Deputy National Chairman (South).
So, one cannot blame many citizens for asking whether this second return to the party he once left is merely a strategic electoral alliance or the first chapter of a familiar political script.
Another Yoruba proverb wisely counsels, "once a snake has entered a house through a crack, every rope thereafter is viewed with caution." Collective memory is not built on imagination; it is therefore, built on experience.
This should not be misinterpreted against the political influence of either Ambassador Arapaja or Senator Sharafadeen Alli.
Both men have earned their places in Nigeria's political landscape through years of public engagement.
Neither should be defined solely by the political school from which he emerged. After all, every pupil eventually writes his own examination.
However, leadership is ultimately judged not by the shadows of the past but by the promises of the future.
Therefore, this must be understood from the standpoint of the fact that Oyo voters have become more discerning than they were two decades ago.
Today's electorate is asking tougher questions. They are less interested in who shares a political dining table and more concerned about who can put food on theirs after elections.
They want jobs, dignifying and regular pay at the end of the month, pensioners expect their pensions without excuses, retirees want their gratuity without delays.
The people also desire quality education, accessible healthcare, safer communities, modern road infrastructure that are durable and also sustainable economic growth.
Political nostalgia during or after political campaigns cannot repair broken roads, sentiment cannot create employment, and so also, familiar faces alone cannot build a prosperous future for any society.
That is why this saying, "a bird does not change its feathers simply because the season has changed," validates that assertion above.
Political actors may change parties, allies or slogans, but the true test lies in whether their approach to governance has genuinely evolved.
The real issue before Oyo is therefore much larger than political personalities. It is about preserving the gains made since the state gradually moved away from the politics of overwhelming godfatherism to institutional governance.
Democracy flourishes where institutions are stronger than individuals, where ideas outweigh influence, and where public office is seen as a sacred trust rather than a political reward.
There is another timeless African proverb thay says: "No matter how long the night may be, the dawn will surely come."
Oyo has witnessed both the long night of political supremacy and the gradual dawn of governance-driven politics in its evolution.
The challenge before its people today is to ensure that the rising sun is never eclipsed by the shadows of yesterday.
The road to 2027 is already taking shape, and alliances will be formed while old friends will start to embrace again as well as former rivals sharing the same platform. Be reminded that such is the nature of politics.
But while politicians negotiate their future, the people must negotiate theirs with wisdom because history is like a mirror, it does not force anyone to change, but it faithfully reflects the consequences of every choice.
Oyo must look into that mirror once again, remembering that the hunter who ignores yesterday's footprints may unknowingly walk into tomorrow's trap.
Ibrahim Adekola, writes from Yemetu, Ibadan.